Trading just started this month on the chances of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner leaving his job by the end of June. The trend so far: Watch out, Geithner.

It's looking bearish for him, according to the bull trend in the Intrade prediction market. See the graphic above; note the sudden spike. Still, the percentage is only around 21, but it's rising.

In addition to everything else he faces is this: Depending on what role, if any, Geithner had in the AIG bonus fuss — did he coddle the bonus babies? — that market's going to move, one way or another.

Last year, the Intrade market bought into an Obama win and a U.S. recession by the end of 2008.