The Bart Simpson Effect: Banks change that "F" to an "A"

By the stroke of a few pens from do-overs, America's big banks may emerge from the vaunted "stress tests" with not only higher share prices but also the ability to resume paying big bonuses to their top execs.

The banks are basically filling out their own report cards, but the markets are apparently ignoring that fact. Stocks rose yesterday on the news that the news is not as bad as it could have been.

But just because the markets seem to be cruising doesn't mean they are. As the Financial Times (U.K.) pointed out last night:

Regions Financial provided a microcosm of the volatility in the market, slumping 11 per cent in eight minutes after the Wall Street Journal said it also needed new capital. But its shares then surged, and closed 6.2 per cent up at $5.83.

Meanwhile, Citigroup has played good PR throughout. After reports Wednesday that it would need only $5 billion — half of what earlier reports had "revealed" — its stock jumped 17 percent.

All this game-playing with the numbers leaves more than just journalists skeptical. Robert Loest, fund manager at Integrity Mutual, is quoted by the FT as saying:

"Investors are deluded. The stress tests were done by the banks themselves, and any rational person would be suspicious of that."

But for now, who's naughty and who's nice? Check out the Wall Street Journal's unofficial scorecard this morning. Yes, Bank of America appears to have flunked and will need more capital. And so will Wells Fargo, GMAC, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Regions Financial, and State Street.

But apparently not Goldman, J.P. Morgan Chase, MetLife, American Express, Bank of New York Mellon, or Capital One.

Which means that the CEOs at the bad banks are in deep shit. Which means that BofA's Ken Lewis needs to start negotiating his relocation package.

Meanwhile, here's a pretty good overview on what the stress tests (to be formally announced after the close of the market this afternoon) will supposedly tell us.