'Recession to end'? 'Panel of economists' is just woofing in the wind.
Oh, what a joy it was to see this CNN headline last week: "Economists: Recession to end in 2009."
You could have watching Family Feud, on which the host regularly proclaims, "Survey says..." And the story, which said "the end of the recession is in sight," according to a "panel of 45 economists," has about as much connection to reality.
CNN's story contained more than just a whiff of woofness (see this item for a definition of this synonym for "bullshit"). I'd give it a 9 on the Woofness Index.
Why was it bullshit? On Seeking Alpha, Eduard Fischer points out why in "7 Arguments Against a Quick Recovery."
He prefaces his dirty-laundry list by noting that CNN story and writing:
Actually, beyond the belief in the voodoo of economic cycles and faith in the prognostication of leading indicators I haven't even seen a vague rationale.
Fischer's arguments are well-constructed. He notes, for instance, that "the US has by far the lowest per capita tax rate in the first world. The economic theory has long been that the more you lower taxes the more you simulate the economy. The US Treasury is now attempting to stimulate the economy by taking on an additional debt burden of approximately five trillion dollars over the next two years."
And then he adds:
Among his other points: "The US banking system is corrupt" and "The real estate problems aren't over."
Oh, and he also argues that "China can't save the world economy."
The Hummer, yes. The economy, no.
