States of Siege: Shit is Rolling Downhill Rapidly

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Your state is in deep financial trouble, and now that it has managed to patch together a fiscal 2010 budget, the real trouble begins. Service cuts, federal stimulus money, reserve funds — those are history. Where are the new solutions for next year's budgets — and the next year's? Bailouts? Yeah, right.

A new report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities paints a bleak picture that won't have the impact on the stock market that the Fed's lukewarmly optimistic statement today ("Fed Says Economy Appears More Stable," as the WSJ puts it) had. The Dow industrials rose 120 points after the Fed's announcement, because the state budget woes play no part in market psychology.

While Wall Street is digging out from last year's disaster, amid the Fed's pronouncement that we may very well have reached bottom, the states are still sliding down rapidly. See the chart above, which compares the current recession with a recent one.

Just a month into the new fiscal year, "new shortfalls have opened up" in the patched-together budgets of at least 13 states, the CBPP says. Arizona, Connecticut, Michigan, and Pennsylvania haven't even adopted budgets yet for 2010, and the states suffering from the "new shortfalls" include New York and California.

Sales tax receipts have fallen more steeply than during the last recession, which can only mean that the long-term damage will be longer and deeper. You don't have to be a brain surgeon to see, as the CBPP points out, the states' budget problems will be worse in fiscal 2011 than they will be during the fiscal year that just began last month.