This A.M.: Longer Life in Store; YouTube Deal with Time-Warner Will Make It More Entertaining

Credit card issuers boost rates ahead of tougher rules (L.A. Times)

Banks "are getting their shots in while they can," says a prominent observer. More: "For the three months that ended June 30, U.S. households on average carried a credit card balance of $7,987, down from a high of $8,529 in the third quarter of last year, according to Moody's Economy.com."


The Coming Recovery Will Most Likely Not Be Robust (Seeking Alpha, Tom Lindmark)

Parsing IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard's prediction that the Great Recession has permanently damaged economic growth.


Time Warner, YouTube Reach Video, Ad Rev Agreement (WSJ)

Small picture: Google on the march to make its YouTube unit show a profit. Big picture: Latest in a series of pacts that will allow advertisers to make big footprints on the Internet. (See also "YouTube Pumps More Ads Into Lineup.") Bad news for network TV; great news for bloggers looking to spice up their sites. Even better news: Adult Swim clips will be available on YouTube.


US Life Expectancy Reaches All Time High (Medical News Today)

Is that good news or bad news? We're up to nearly 78, so we'll be even crankier for even longer and will cause more traffic accidents. We'll also require more health care for longer, and you'll have to pay for it.


Princeton, Harvard Share Top Spot in U.S. News College Rankings (Bloomberg)

Meaningless ratings (except for the huge PR value) by the ailing U.S. News & World Report yield the usual suspects. This account by Oliver Staley is an unusually thorough look at a highly (and humorously) flawed process during which schools are increasingly accused of "manipulating" their admission policies to impress an increasing irrelevant news magazine. More scary is that colleges are now judging prospective students by their "personalities," as the WSJ reports. (Mark me down for a trade school.)


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This A.M.: The Art of the Madoff Scam; Investment Bankers Are Back, Baby!; Commies Are Coming


Madoff Investor's Art Dealer Got $26.5 Million in Rothko Sale (Bloomberg)

Madoff pal Ezra Merkin sells off art for $310 million to unknown buyer. Fee to mysterious agent (believed to be Kyra Sedgwick's stepfather) dwarfs mysterious buyer's agent fee. Cuomo skims off $191 million, puts it in escrow for Madoff's/Merkin's victims.


Two years of pain and mega bonuses are back (Times U.K.)

Investment-banking is back in a big way, and investment bankers are popular once again. "Guaranteed multi-year bonuses, which have been attacked as the worst kind of banking excess, are back. ... It wasn't meant to be like this. Regulators were meant to change the rules to make sure that such bonuses would never be paid again. We had the Walker report on executive pay, and Barack Obama's strictures on remuneration in America. Funnily enough, they do not seem to have curbed banks' behaviour one bit."


US food groups warn of sugar shortage (Telegraph U.K.)

If you consider Hershey, Mars, and Krispy Kreme "food groups."


MADOFF'S MAN DODGES GUN, DRUG CHARGES (NY Post)

Frank DiPascali's deal "shut the door on other skeletons in his closet, including guns and drugs."


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States of Siege: Shit is Rolling Downhill Rapidly

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Your state is in deep financial trouble, and now that it has managed to patch together a fiscal 2010 budget, the real trouble begins. Service cuts, federal stimulus money, reserve funds — those are history. Where are the new solutions for next year's budgets — and the next year's? Bailouts? Yeah, right.

A new report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities paints a bleak picture that won't have the impact on the stock market that the Fed's lukewarmly optimistic statement today ("Fed Says Economy Appears More Stable," as the WSJ puts it) had. The Dow industrials rose 120 points after the Fed's announcement, because the state budget woes play no part in market psychology.

While Wall Street is digging out from last year's disaster, amid the Fed's pronouncement that we may very well have reached bottom, the states are still sliding down rapidly. See the chart above, which compares the current recession with a recent one.

Experts 'horribly, horribly wrong': Fertilizing the bull market with bullshit

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Finally, a consensus: Some market experts agree that no one know what the fuck anyone is talking about when it comes to the market's recent rise.

Hardly surprising, but see Paul Learton's "This Chart Can Kill Any Bull," which contends that "this bear market is nowhere near over," even though the S&P 500 has rallied more than 20 percent since that magic number of 666 on March 10. Learton writes:

Pundits and media commentators alike have taken this to mean that the bear market is over and that stocks should once again be the primary asset class for investors.

None of them know what they're talking about.

Well, who says he knows? Learton's not claiming to know, but he merely points out:

Over the last 18 months, the media has been rife with "bottom callers," all of whom have not only been wrong, but horribly, horribly wrong. In late 2007/ early 2008, Barron's interviewed 12 Wall Street strategists. All of them thought stocks would rise in 2008. The average forecast was a 10% gain (stocks instead sank 37%).

So it's with some concern that I noticed Barron's latest "Big Money Poll" (a survey of 100 money managers nationwide) showed an overwhelmingly bullish skew: 60% of respondents were either bullish or extremely bullish about stocks for 2009.

Generally speaking, any time all the "experts" agree on something, the exact opposite usually comes true. And right now the "experts" believe stocks are entering a new bull market... and that the US economy is back on track.

So why not follow the advice of the blogger known as Everyday Finance? He basically advises that you take no one's advice:

The point is that you shouldn't be swayed by sensational sound bites and headlines from lionized economists, but rather, stick to your long term investment objective.

If you're a twenty-something with a 401K account and you were trying to time your account in and out of the market, you may have very well missed the best 2 month move in equities you'll see in a lifetime. History has demonstrated that the majority of all upside in portfolio performance over a given time period is attributed to just a small fraction of very up trading days - and you may have missed them. For someone with a long time horizon that didn't need that cash for another 35 years, the best policy is probably to set it and forget it in the lowest fee passive index-type funds you can find in your plan.

Many of you twenty-somethings — including those who have gravitated to "youth-magnet" cities — have few job prospects, of course, and thus have no money to invest, so you didn't miss anything, and you can just ignore all of the above.

'Times' advice for tough times: Give up!

Looking for ways to weather the recession — just in case Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is wrong — you might want to heed the two suggestions dispensed by the New York Times in separate stories on Friday the 13th to just throw in the towel.

In "Thoughts on Walking Away from Your Home Loan," Ron Lieber makes a doomsday scenario sound almost, well, painless. Don't qualify for the Obama plan? Not enough income to pay your loans? Can't refinance?

So just stop paying. As Lieber says:

In an economic environment like this one, ... the consequences of giving up on your mortgage may not be as painful as they were a few years ago. Yes, it's almost always preferable to negotiate a better deal on your existing mortgage than to walk away. But if you can't work things out with your lender, you probably won't be sued. You shouldn't receive a major tax bill either. And the damage to your credit will not be permanent or insurmountable.

And don't fret too much about it. Though he's writing for the "Your Money" column, Lieber exhibits about as little faith in financial planners as one could possibly have:

If you have moral misgivings about not making good on your mortgage, a religious officiant may offer as much useful guidance as a financial planner.

Meanwhile, don't worry about setting a bad example for your kids, because here's another workaround for their future: Tell them to forget about college for at least a year. In another Friday the 13th piece, Jonathan D. Glater wrote, in "Delaying College for a Year Could Have Benefits," that even if Congress okays Obama's expanded college-aid plans, they won't take effect until a year from this July. So he says:

Here is a heretical idea for this year's high school seniors: Take a year off and go out and do something else. Then, when it is available, see if you can take advantage of that aid money -- more fixed-rate student loans and bigger grants to the poorest students.

Actually, the latter idea (delaying college) makes sense — even in good times, many Europeans and Aussies take a year to travel after they graduate from high school instead of rushing off to college to become investment bankers. Many U.S. baby boomers would have done the same thing (the year-off thing) if they hadn't been threatened with the draft during the Vietnam War.

Now, with no draft, no jobs, no home, no prospects, why not take a year off? Maybe Bernanke will be right and you can resume your dreams next year.