A bull run? Markets' rise was just bull.

The bottom is still far way: Yesterday's market surge turned out to be a one-day event. Ahead of the opening bell this morning, Barron's headlines, "Equities Head Lower as Risk Aversion Creeps Back In." Reporter Bob O'Brien translates:

U.S. equities pointed to a modestly weaker start Thursday, evidence investors aren't convinced that Tuesday's year-best nearly 400-point surge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average meant a turn in the bear market. The S&P 500 futures are looking down by less than five points, suggesting that, while there isn't much conviction regarding a recovery, investors feel just as uneasy about missing the start of any legitimate rally.

"U.S. Futures Point to Weak Open," the Wall Street Journal blares. Across the sea, the Financial Times reports that insurors fell during heavy trading and that banks are ending their two-day rally in Europe. Japan, meanwhile, continues to sink into the drink — stocks fell sharply over there.

Japan's about to fall into the drink

Japan finance minister485.jpg
                  Intoxicated by his failure last month: Finance Minister Nakagawa.

We have every right to whine about our economy, and so do you Brits and particularly you Icelanders. But Japan is in free-fall.

One way to tell is that profit-takers are circling. Over at the Daily Crux, a recent headline proclaimed, "The world's biggest bankruptcy is coming...here's how to profit," and the site referred you to Tom Dyson's rant on Steve Sjuggerud's Daily Wealth:

...The "debt clock" measures the amount of money the government owes its creditors. Today, the U.S. debt clock reads $11 trillion. To pay off this debt tomorrow, the government would have to collect $36,000 from every American.

But America is NOT about to be the world's biggest bankruptcy.

Of the major industrial economies in the world, Japan's government is the most indebted.

Since its recession began 20 years ago, Japan has plowed trillions into its banking system via numerous bailout programs. Japan's mantra is growth without cost. As a result, the Japanese government has built up the world's most crippling debt load.

The government of Japan owes $7.8 trillion. That's $157,000 per capita.

Too much hysteria? Not really. This morning's Wall Street Journal, in "Japan's Nikkei Slides as Economy Weakens," gives us a story that's far scarier than that bland headline. Alison Tudor writes:

Japan's economy, already contracting at an alarming rate, received a fresh blow Monday as its stock market sank to 26-year lows and plunging exports led to its first current-account deficit in 13 years.

Remember the country's finance minister, Shoichi Nakagawa — the guy in charge of the world's second-biggest economy — who appeared so drunk at the G20 last month that he was forced to quit? He was the right-hand man of Prime Minister Taro Aso, who is believed to be the most unpopular leader in Japanese history.

Nakagawa undoubtedly help screw things up in Japan, but can you blame him for getting drunk?

Today's WSJ story comes on the heels of a BCA Research piece last week, "Japan: Economic Implosion!," which pointed out:

The Japanese manufacturing sector has collapsed, and further production cuts lie ahead.

Industrial production plunged 10% in January, on the heels of a similar decline in prior months. Output has contracted a mind-boggling 25% in the past three months, exceeding the rate of decline in U.S. production at any point during the Great Depression.

"Severely depressed" for months — that's the prognosis for Japan. But the global despair is so immense these days that even the global beer barons are crying in their beer.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev, the world's largest brewer said the other day that it would "sell off assets, cut costs, suspend executive bonuses and slash its dividend to pay off debt," because of a sharp drop in quarterly profit.

Likely to be ditched, says the WSJ, are theme parks SeaWorld and Busch Gardens, along with other parts of the global beer empire.

Obama's speech sparks slight world rise, but Land of the Rising Sun sinking fast

President Barack Obama's speech last night to a joint session of Congress was schmaltzy and surprisingly ordinary, but it did appear to slightly lift the mood in world financial markets.

The Wall Street Journal reports ahead of the opening bell that the futures market took a bearish dip. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's disavowal earlier in the day of the need for bank nationalization did lift the Dow. We'll know later this morning the impact of Obama's speech on the U.S. market, of course, but overseas, London bankers saw his speech as upbeat and the market rose a teensy bit.

But over in Japan, there's deep trouble. For us, the question could be: Who's going to make our cars? But Prime Minister Taro Aso has his own problems. He's facing parliamentary elections, and only a week ago, he had to get rid of his publicly drunken finance minister. Yesterday, Aso fled to the U.S. just ahead of Obama's speech, the first foreign dignitary to visit the Oval Office.

Japan has been used and abused by Wall Street's meltdown, and Aso has come to the U.S. to try to use us for a change. The Wall Street Journal explains that Aso's visit "appeared aimed at giving the struggling prime minister a lift back home by dramatizing his continued significance on the world stage."

Better that Aso spend a day courting Obama than face the crescendo of complaints back in Tokyo.

Depending as it does on exports, Japan is hurting, the Financial Times (U.K.) reports:

Japan last month suffered a fall of nearly 50 per cent in exports, leading to the country's worst trade deficit ever and fuelling fears that the recession will be longer and deeper than previously anticipated.

Despite a slight market and yen boost from Obama's speech, Japan's in the worst shape it's been in since it lost World War II. The FT notes in a separate piece:

Japan's government is considering buying shares to prop up the country's ailing stock market in a desperate attempt to prevent tumbling equity prices from inflicting further pain on its fragile economy.

The WSJ quotes Aso as saying the two countries ""will have to work together hand in hand. And I think we are the only two nations which can offer enough to solve those very critical, vital issue[s] of the world."

Yes, Aso's situation is so bad that he needs someone like Obama to at least hold his hand, if not give him a big ol' hug.